The Short-Term Respiratory Health Effects of Recurrent Landfill Fires: A Time Series Analysis, Havering, UK (2018–2023)
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Authors
Anthony Simiyu Wakhisi, DrPH, MSc1
Klea Katsouyanni, PhD, MSc2
Dimitris Evangelopoulos, PhD, MSc 2
Mark Ansell, FFPH, PhD
Mark Holder, SPHA
Samantha Westrop, FFPH, PhD
Contact
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Issue Date
06-May-26
Type
Conference Abstract
Language
Keywords
Community safety , Neighbourhood health & place-based working , Working with people and communities
Alternative Title
Abstract
Objectives
The primary aim of this study was to assess the short‑term respiratory health effects associated with recurrent fire incidents at Arnold's Field, a former landfill site in the London Borough of Havering, between 2018 and 2023, among residents living in close proximity.
Methods
A time series analysis was conducted using NHS primary and secondary healthcare data for residents in 14 Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) located within a two-mile radius of the landfill site. Exposure data included records of fire incidents, air pollution levels and meteorological variables. Poisson regression models were used to assess associations between fire days and respiratory healthcare activities.
Results
There were 99 fire days during the study period. GP attendances for patients with existing chronic respiratory illness were significantly higher on fire days as compared to non-fire days (RR=1.35, 95% CI: 1.01–1.80), equivalent to 35% rise in rate of attendance. No significant associations were observed for GP attendances with general respiratory symptoms, A&E attendances and hospital admissions. Daily average PM2.5 levels were not significantly associated with any healthcare activities.
Conclusion
This study presents the first fine‑scale UK evidence on short‑term respiratory impacts associated with landfill fires. Fire incidents at Arnold's Field were linked to increased GP consultations among individuals with pre‑existing chronic respiratory conditions. These findings highlight the importance of using high‑resolution temporal data when setting air‑quality thresholds, as annual averages may obscure acute effects from recurrent pollution episodes. They also emphasise the need for strengthened air‑quality monitoring and targeted public‑health measures in communities exposed to waste‑related fires.
Key words: Landfill Fires, Respiratory Health, Air Pollution, Time Series Analysis, Healthcare Utilisation