Estimating the Cardiovascular Impact of a Community‑Led Heart Health Programme in a Local Authority Setting
No Thumbnail Available
Authors
Mohammed Jawad
Contact
Check for full-text access
Issue Date
06-May-26
Type
Conference Abstract
Language
Keywords
Rapid evaluation
Alternative Title
Abstract
Background
Cardiovascular disease remains a leading cause of preventable illness and premature mortality, with persistent inequalities affecting African, Caribbean and South Asian communities and people living in more deprived areas. Local authorities increasingly commission community‑based prevention programmes, yet demonstrating credible population‑level impact at pilot scale is challenging, particularly where outcomes are longer term.
Objectives
To estimate the potential cardiovascular impact of Healthy Hearts, a culturally tailored, community‑led heart health programme, by modelling the number of major cardiovascular events potentially prevented through improvements in systolic blood pressure.
Methods
We used Year 3 delivery data from Healthy Hearts, which reached 840 participants through 696 brief or extended brief one‑to‑one interventions, seven intensive workshops (104 attendees) and three multi‑session courses (40 participants). Programme reach prioritised African, Caribbean and South Asian communities and residents from more deprived wards. To translate programme activity into health outcomes, we applied effect sizes from large meta‑analyses showing that each 10 mmHg reduction in systolic blood pressure is associated with an approximate 20% reduction in major cardiovascular events. Evidence from community education and peer support interventions suggests average reductions of around 3 mmHg following brief contact and 5 mmHg following multi‑session support. These effects were combined with conservative assumptions about baseline cardiovascular risk and the prevalence of uncontrolled high blood pressure among participants. Central, lower‑ and upper‑bound scenarios were modelled.
Results
Under the central scenario, assuming approximately three‑quarters of participants were from higher‑risk groups and half of these had uncontrolled blood pressure, the Year 3 cohort is estimated to prevent around 0.4 major cardiovascular events in the first year. This increases to approximately two events over five years and four events over ten years, attributable to blood pressure improvements alone. Sensitivity analyses produced a lower‑bound estimate of 0.1 events prevented in the first year and an upper‑bound estimate of around 1.2 events.
Discussion
Although the absolute numbers are modest, the estimates are credible for a programme operating at pilot scale and demonstrate measurable health impact alongside a strong equity focus. This modelling approach provides a practical framework for local authorities to translate community‑level activity into meaningful health outcomes, supporting evidence‑informed decisions about investment in preventive services.