Advancing Local Government Evaluation: A Theory of Change Approach to the Croydon Local Area Coordination Programme
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Authors
Mar Estupiñán
Charlotte Harrow
Fatai Ogunlayi
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Issue Date
06-May-26
Type
Conference Abstract
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Keywords
Rapid evaluation , Communities cohesion , Working with people and communities
Alternative Title
Abstract
Background: Evaluating complex public health and prevention programmes within local government remains essential for understanding impact, guiding improvement, and informing investment decisions. Croydon Local Area Coordination (LAC) programme offers a case study of how councils can embed robust evaluation approaches that move beyond conventional logic models toward a more comprehensive and iterative Theory of Change (ToC) approach. This shift enables a clearer articulation of mechanisms of change, contextual influences, and long-term outcomes which is critical for programmes that operate across prevention, early intervention, and community capacity-building.
Objectives: To develop a ToC framework and evaluate Croydon LAC Programme including: (1) assessing programme outcomes at individual, community, and systems levels; (2) describing mechanisms of change and influencing factors shaping the programme success or challenges; (3) examining cost effectiveness and financial impact.
Stages at submission: Work in progress. Early stages of the ToC model and process review completed.
Methods: A mixed methods evaluation guided by the ToC to understand how, why, and for whom the programme works. The evaluation comprises three work packages: (1) a process review (to establish a shared understanding of the programme's theories, objectives, and operational model); (2) a formative assessment (to enable programme adjustment) and summative assessments (to assess overall impact, effectiveness, and lessons learned); (3) an economic evaluation (to assess financial value and sustainability).
Discussion: Early groundwork rotted in relational practice such as cross-organisations engagement, facilitated discussion, and transparent communication has helped build mutual understanding, minimise tension, and avoid duplication by clarifying roles and complementary functions. Establishing a multi-stakeholder leadership board has been instrumental in creating shared ownership, shaping direction, and ensuring alignment across systems. Emerging insights highlights the critical value of strong governance and collaborative design. Commissioning an external evaluator adds methodological rigour and neutrality, supporting credible evidence generation and reinforcing trust among partners. This theory-driven evaluation will demonstrate the capacity of local government to lead sophisticated, academically grounded research. It will offer a replicable model that elevates the profile of local government within the wider public health research landscape and will provide a practical blueprint for other authorities seeking to strengthen their own evaluation practice.