Development of a pediatric ebola predictive score, Sierra Leone
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Authors
Fitzgerald, Felicity
Wing, Kevin
Naveed, Asad
Gbessay, Musa
Ross, J.C.G.
Checchi, Francesco
Youkee, Daniel
Jalloh, Mohamed Boie
Baion, David E.
Mustapha, Ayeshatu
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Issue Date
2018
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Article
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Abstract
We compared children who were positive for Ebola virus disease (EVD) with those who were negative to derive a pediatric EVD predictor (PEP) score. We collected data on all children <13 years of age admitted to 11 Ebola holding units in Sierra Leone during August 2014-March 2015 and performed multivariable logistic regression. Among 1,054 children, 309 (29%) were EVD positive and 697 (66%) EVD negative, with 48 (5%) missing. Contact history, conjunctivitis, and age were the strongest positive predictors for EVD. The PEP score had an area under receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.80. A PEP score of 7/10 was 92% specific and 44% sensitive; 3/10 was 30% specific, 94% sensitive. The PEP score could correctly classify 79%-90% of children and could be used to facilitate triage into risk categories, depending on the sensitivity or specificity required.
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Journal
Emerging Infectious Diseases
Volume
24
Issue
2